Monday, November 01, 2004


Election predictions

An overabundance of work has caused me not to blog for a while, but here goes with my election predictions:


Bush 50, Kerry 48, Nader 1, others 1

Bush wins all Bush 2000 states except NH (Kerry by 3) and picks up IA (by 3), NM (by 5), and WI (by 2) from Gore 2000 states.

Closest electoral vote contests are ME 2nd dist - Kerry by about 400 votes, MN - Kerry by 1%, and MI (Kerry by 2%) and OH (Bush by 2%).

Bush 295 (and 1 EV for some other Republican cast by a WV elector), Kerry 242

Competitive Senate races:

AK: Murkowski by 3% (don't forget that Alaskans will know with several hours left to vote that there will be a continued GOP Senate, and they're not about to opt for a freshman member of the minority party)
CA: Boxer by 10%
CO: Coors by 1.5% (Bush's GOTV operation is stronger than it has been given credit for here, and Bill Owens wants this one badly for his 2008 run)
FL: Castor by 1% (Martinez underperforms Bush dramatically in Foley's and Shaw's districts)
GA: Isakson by about 20%
(mentioned mainly because it's a party change)
IL: Obama in a walkaway (not competitive, but it's a party change)
KY: Bunning by 6%
LA: Vitter leads going into runoff with 45% (against John, with 24%), but loses it by 1% or less
MO: Bond by 13%
NC: Burr by 4%
OK: Coburn by 8%
PA: Specter by 9% (with another 9% going to Clymer)
SC: DeMint by 11%
SD: Thune by 1.8%
WA: Murray by 6%
WI: Feingold by 9%

All incumbents win reelection.
Benson (by 7%) is the only one with a close (under 10%) race.
IN: Daniels by 6%
MO: Blunt by 6%
MT: Brown by 2% (polling MT is very hard)
WA: Gregoire by 5%
Huntsman wins UT by about 20%, and Manchin wins WV by a larger amount

Seriously contested House races (all open seats not mentioned are safe for the incumbent party):
AL-03: Rogers (by 12%)
AK: none
AZ-01: Renzi (by 14%)
AR-02: Snyder (by 15%)
CA-20: Costa (by 4%)
CA-39: Sanchez (by 12%)
CA-47: Sanchez (by 15%)
CO-03: Walcher (by 4%)
CO-04: Musgrave (by 15%)
CO-07: Beauprez (by 7%)
CT-02: Simmons (by 11%)
DE: none
FL: none (everything contested has a 20% margin or more)
GA-03: Marshall (by 16%)
GA-11: Gingrey (by 14%)
GA-12: Barrow (by 2%) (Burns puts up a good fight, but this seat was drawn to be Democrat)
HI: none
ID: none
IL-08: Crane (by 6%)
IL-11: Weller (by 16%)
IL-17: Evans (by 20%)
IN-02: Chocola (by 14%)
IN-03: Souder (it's a blowout)
IN-07: Carson (by 10%)
IN-08: Hostettler (by 7%)
IN-09: Hill (by 9%)
IA-03: Boswell (by 8%)
KS-03: Moore (by 3%)
KY-03: Northrup (by 9%)
KY-04: Davis (by 5%)
LA-01: Jindal gets 54% for an outright win
LA-03: Tauzin (33%)/Romero (25%) runoff, which Tauzin wins by 10%
LA-05: Alexander wins outright with 59%
LA-07: Mount (29%)/Boustany (25%) runoff, which Boustany wins by 3%
ME: none
MD: none
MA: none
MI: none
MN-02: Kline (by 11%)
MN-06: Kennedy (by 13%)
MS: none
MO-03: Carnahan (by 13%)
MO-05: Cleaver (by 9%)
MT: none
NE: Fortenberry (by 13%)
NV-03: Porter (by 15%)
NH: none
NJ-05: Garrett (by 14%)
NJ-07: Ferguson (by 10%)
NM-01: Wilson (by 8%)
NY-02: Israel (by 10%)
NY-27: Higgins (by 5%)
NY-29: Kuhl (by 7%)
NC-07: Hayes (by 11%)
NC-11: Taylor (by 9%)
ND-AL: Pomeroy (by 12%)
OH: none
OK: none
OR-01: Wu (by 8%)
OR-05: Hooley (by 10%)
PA-04: Hart (by 8%)
PA-06: Gerlach (by 7%)
PA-08: Fitzpatrick (by 22% - it helps when your opponent self-destructs)
PA-13: Schwartz (by 10%)
PA-15: Dent (by 9%)
PA-17: Holden (by 13%)
RI: none
SC: none
SD-AL: Diedrich (by 1%)
TN-04: Davis (by 12%)
TX-01: Gohmert (by 16%)
TX-02: Lampson (by 3%)
TX-10: McCaul (by over 30% - it's a party change)
TX-11: Conaway (by over 20% - it's a party change)
TX-15: Hinojosa (by 9%)
TX-17: Edwards (by 4%)
TX-19: Neugebauer (by 7%)
TX-24: Marchant (by 18%)
TX-32: Sessions (by 8%)
UT-02: Matheson (by 9%)
VT: none
VA-02: Drake (by 12%)
VA-08: Moran (by 17%)
VA-09: Boucher (by 14%)
WA-02: Larsen (by 8%)
WA-03: Baird (by 10%)
WA-05: McMorris (by 11%)
WA-08: Reichert (by 4%)
WV-02: Capito (by 10%)
WI: none
WY: none

That's a net +# for the GOP in the Senate (making it 54-45-1), a net +2 for the GOP in Governorships, and a net + 5 for the GOP in the House after the December LA runoffs (making it 234-200-1). Outside of TX, where 4 Dem incumbents lose, the only open seats to change hands are the Ken Lucas, Chris John, and Jack Quinn open seats (each of which goes to the party that it favors at the Presidential level).

Call this a very status-quo election.

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